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A decade following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.

That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."

Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate

The duo have examined the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."

Legal Framework

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.

"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in universities but hardly any elected officials or activists want to engage with the basics. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two articles that strive for neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and societal data, past examples and structural examples.

Debates encompass identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and encourage discussion.

"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist valid points on either side."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.

Likelihood of Public Vote

McBride considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has got something to acquire from the other's arguments."

Appeal for Wider Debate

Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."